Arctic Council gavel was passed on but won’t break the ice
The activities of the Arctic Council have been suspended since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia had held the rotating chairmanship since 2021, and it was long feared that the planned handover this year would be tense — if it happened at all. That turned out not to be the case, but the body once thought to be isolated from tensions outside the region is showing it isn’t so exceptional after all.
The good news first: the planned handover of the Arctic Council to Norway from Russia took place on 11 May. Oslo will now be able to go ahead with an agenda for the eight-member council that is heavily concerned with the organisation’s survival. This is a goal that all of the other members, including Russia, say they support. During the handover, Nikolai Korchunov, Moscow’s Arctic ambassador, said: “Today’s meeting showed that there is a willingness to keep and maintain the Arctic Council.” Is this the thaw between Russia and the other seven Arctic countries that have been hoping for since Russia invaded Ukraine and council activities were suspended?
Judging by the handover itself — and this is the bad news — a thaw is still far off. The meeting, held in Salekhard, in Siberia, was attended in person only by Russian delegates. Council representatives, including Morten Høglund, who, as Norway’s senior Arctic representative, will now chair the council, all attended on-line. There were none of the customary handshakes, none of the friendly words and no pictures of ministers smiling for the press and public. One bright spot was a statement by the eight members recognising “the historic and unique role of the Arctic Council for constructive co-operation, stability and dialogue among the people of the Arctic region”. The statement also recognised the rights of Arctic indigenous peoples and their special relationship with the Arctic, as well as the importance of transboundary and people-to-people co-operation.
Russia’s statements and the events and actions beyond the meeting do not suggest, however, that the situation will change with the handover and the publication of a friendly-sounding statement. Indeed, Mr Korchunov made it clear where Russia’s council priorities lie: “Such a large country as Russia cannot and should not rely only on one format and become hostage to such a format. Our co-operation in the Arctic could be multilateral, bilateral and trilateral,” he said, according to High North News, a Norway-based website. Does that signal Russia’s intention to leave the Arctic Council? Perhaps, but it is not something Moscow is planning just yet, according to Mr Korchunov. “It is necessary to have options to avoid dependencies, and everything is possible. So far, we have no plans to leave the Arctic Council. But, if the organisation becomes useless, or our rights are violated, we will consider leaving. We strictly follow our national interests, and they come first.” Oslo, Mr Høglund described on the sidelines of the meeting, sees the council as being in a difficult, but survivable situation. Meanwhile it, too, is saying one thing in the official statements and doing something else. For example, controls on Russian fishing vessels in Norwegian ports, which are still allowed under the terms of a bilateral fishing agreement, have been massively increased. In addition, at the end of May Norway and its Nordic neighbours will hold one of their largest fighter-jet exercises ever in the far north, right on Russia’s doorstep. Meanwhile, its news outlets continue to focus on the deployment of additional military units in the Russian Arctic. For example, controls on Russian fishing vessels in Norwegian ports, which are still allowed under the terms of a bilateral fishing agreement, have been massively increased. In addition, at the end of May Norway and its Nordic neighbours will hold one of their largest fighter-jet exercises ever in the far north, right on Russia’s doorstep. Meanwhile, its news outlets continue to focus on the deployment of additional military units in the Russian Arctic.
The consensus among observers appears to be that the muddled situation is unlikely to clear up anytime soon. This is a position shared by Moscow and Oslo. Norway, though, believes the council can now somehow begin its work again, even without Russian involvement. Comments made by Pan Zejun, a Chinese ministerial councillor, to Norwegian media at the end of April voicing China’s would seem to indicate Oslo has Beijing in its corner. According to Mr Pan, Beijing believes in the work of the Arctic Council and that it supports Norwegian efforts to resolve the situation in the far north. But what such efforts look like specifically remains a mystery. Mr Høglund only spoke vaguely about the matter on Thursday. But it is clear that the Arctic world is currently spinning without Russia, and simply wielding the gavel will not be enough to break the ice in the Arctic Council.
Dr Michael Wenger, PolarJournal
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