Donald Trump wants Greenland again. Could he actually succeed?
Donald Trump Jr. is visiting Greenland ahead of his father’s inauguration as president of the United States. The Trump plan is clear: Greenland should become part of the US. But could it actually happen?
Like the eye of Sauron, the world has suddenly turned its attention to Greenland. Donald Trump Jr. is visiting the country, his father posted a video with a Greenlandic MAGA supporter, and even Elon Musk is x’ing about it.
And they mean business: the coming president of the United States of America stated that he would not rule out military force to gain control of the country.
At the time of writing this article, developments are happening at a fast pace. It can be hard to discern how much is empty rhetoric and how much are serious intentions on the part of the US.
A rule of thumb known as the Betteridge Law states that “any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no”. This rule might prove true in the case of this article too.
It is, however, worth considering the question. Because, in the blink of an eye, many of the important and sensitive debates taking place in Greenland are brought to the fore.
Debates that in the past few years we have covered extensively in Polar Journal AG. Debates like: How Greenland can utilize its natural resources, if it should move towards more independence, and why its relationship with Denmark has become increasingly strained.
So, to explore the question in the title, this article tries to answer five important questions that has arisen in the past few days, starting with the following:
Could Donald Trump legally buy Greenland?
The perfect person to answer this is the New Zealand legal scholar Miriam Cullen. She is currently employed by the University of Copenhagen but recently worked at the University of Greenland where she researched if a free association agreement could be implemented in Greenland.
According to her, the legal question is simple: No, the US cannot purchase Greenland from Denmark.
“You can’t sell Greenland, where people live and have self-government. The Self-Government Act makes it very clear that a decision on Greenland’s independence must be made by the people of Greenland,” she told Danish fact-checking media TjekDet.
In fact, it is even impossible to own land in Greenland, she points out.
“It’s simply crazy talk. I don’t even see the first step, a Greenlandic majority in a vote, happening,” she told TV2, another Danish media outlet.
Could Greenland join the US on their own?
Instead, as Miriam Cullen mentioned, there is another way that Greenland could join the US without money changing hands: Through a referendum among its people. The referendum would ask if Greenland should claim independence from Denmark.
If that vote were successful, which Miriam Cullen doubts, negotiations between the governments of Greenland and Denmark would start. In theory, the Danish parliament could block a secession against the will of the Greenlandic people, similarly to the contested referendum in Catalonia that attempted to break from Spain.
In reality, however, Denmark is unlikely to do this. It has long promised Greenland self-determination in the question of independence. But, things are moving fast at the moment, and a shift might be happening in Denmark on this question.
The right wing Danish MP Alex Ahrendtsen stated on Tuesday that: “Greenlanders have no more right to Greenland than the Danes”. And MPs from two other right-leaning parties would also not guarantee Greenlandic independence, even if its people voted to secede.
Only once Greenland has officially left the Danish Realm could its government start legal procedures to become part of the US.
Could Trump take Greenland illegally?
The two questions above assume that Donald Trump and his administration intend to work within the confines of international law. But that assumption may be wrong. Unlike in 2019 where Trump specifically talked about ‘buying’ Greenland, the rhetoric this time has been about ‘ownership and control of Greenland’.
The first big indication of his renewed interest in Greenland came on December 23rd, 2024, when his new ambassador to Denmark, Ken Howery, was announced. In a press release, Donald Trump said that:
“For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.”
Could his intentions be to take Greenland from Denmark with force? It was not, at least, a notion he would rule out when asked about it on Tuesday.
This would be a clear violation of international law, infringing on the sovereignty of The Danish Realm. Moreover, it would put NATO in a highly awkward situation. However, as the 1973 conflict between Greece and Turkey over Cyprus highlighted, it would not be a clear breach of any charters for two NATO member states to attack each other.
So an illegal takeover would not be impossible in a world where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has diminished the importance of international law and the rule-based international order. In terms of pure realpolitik the US could probably take Greenland without any immediate consequences.
Does Greenland want to join the US?
In Greenland, moves towards independence are happening at a steady pace. Most recently, prime minister Múte B. Egede announced further steps in his New Year’s speech on January 1st.
There seems to be clear support in the population for moving away from Denmark in one way or another. The problem is that, currently, about half of Greenland’s national budget is financed by Denmark. Therefore, a complete break from Denmark would mean a significant fall in living standards.
On the surface, this seems ideal for Donald Trump: He could swoop in with a better deal and secure the support of Greenland with a financial incentive.
But if you have followed the debate around Greenland’s independence, it is clear that it is about much more than money. For many, it is about feeling misunderstood and discriminated against in the Danish Realm, and about having a culture and a system forced upon you that does not correspond with your values.
It is unlikely that Trump and the bombastic statements of his followers will appeal to the thoughtful and often reserved temperaments of the Kalaallit Inuit (Greenlandic people).
Already, if it is anything to go by, Aaja Chemnitz, a Greenlandic member of the Danish parliament, has warned her compatriots about tempting offers from the US. She points to the plight of the Inuit of Alaska, who, in her opinion, are much worse off than those in Greenland.
But, at the moment, things are moving fast. You cannot rule out entirely that a majority in Greenland could be tempted by a good deal from Donald Trump.
So, how likely is Trump to take control?
Quite likely if you ask the betting market Kalsi which on Wednesday surged to a 29 percent likelihood that Trump would buy at least part of Greenland.
It is questionable, though, if those predictions have not been skewed by the recent media hype. Considering the questions answered above, this author, for what it’s worth, would put his money on “no”.
And if you look at the most recent statement on Facebook from prime minister Múte B. Egede (cited below), Greenland does not seem overly flattered by the American interest. The Kalaallit interest, unless the US intends to use force, is what the question in the title will ultimately come down to.
“Let me repeat – Greenland belongs to the people of Greenland. Our future and fight for independence is our business,” Múte B. Egede wrote on Facebook.
“Others, including Danes and Americans, are entitled to their opinions, but we should not be caught up in the hysteria and external pressures distract us from our path. The future is ours and will be decided by us.”
“We commit to exercising our rights as people and fulfilling our duties with wisdom and care. Every day is spent working to become independent. We can do things on our own and we can cooperate,” the prime minister wrote.
Ole Ellekrog, Polar Journal AG
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