Major powers tug of war on the US’s Arctic doorstep
While many media outlets are focusing on the situation between NATO and Russia in the Barents Sea, a tug-of-war is raging between the US, China and Russia in the Bering Sea region. The reason behind this is a series of Russian and Chinese actions that have prompted the US Department of Defense to explicitly name the two countries as a threat in a strategy paper and to call for more investment in the military and surveillance in the region.
Tankers packed with liquid gas or oil on their way from Russia to China despite economic sanctions; Chinese naval units sailing through the EEZ areas of the USA; Chinese icebreakers packed with technical equipment wanting to sail into the Arctic ice for the first time and Russian naval units observing and tracking US fishing vessels. It certainly hasn’t been boring in the Bering Strait and the adjacent seas in recent months, at least not for strategic analysts and military experts. Especially those who have been monitoring the situation on behalf of the US Department of Defense and have been working on the US Department of Defense’s new Arctic strategy document.
While the document presented last Monday did not explicitly list the incidents and actions of recent months, it did name the two countries involved, Russia and China, as threats to the country’s security, particularly in the Arctic. “Though not an Arctic nation, the PRC is attempting to leverage changing dynamics in the Arctic to pursue greater influence and access, take advantage of Arctic resources, and play a larger role in regional governance,” the 28-page document describes China’s role. “People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels have also demonstrated the capability and intent to operate in and around the Arctic region through exercises alongside the Russian Navy over the past several years”, it continues.
And Russia is now also cited as an existential threat to the US homeland: “Russia seeks to carry out lower-level destabilizing activities in the Arctic against the United States and our Allies, (…). Russia also has a clear avenue of approach to the U.S. homeland through the Arctic and could use its Arctic-based capabilities to threaten the ability of the United States to project power.” Strongwords from Washington addressing Beijing and Moscow and their cooperation in the Arctic, which is seen as destabilizing and threatening to the US.
The measures required to protect the region are just as clear. In addition to the already known measures such as new, better icebreakers for the coastguard, better communication options and more surveillance and information gathering in all areas, the department also wants clear protective measures against new threats such as hypersonic weapons or long-range, low-flying guided missiles. To this end, new ground and space-based early detection systems and increased cooperation with Canada in the NORAD area are to be developed.
In addition to technical and infrastructural improvements and innovations, the Department of Defense is also focusing on more cooperation. The focus here is not only on NATO partners, but also on the local population, especially the indigenous people, scientific and political institutions and even teaching and information centers for training personnel and passing on knowledge. In addition, more exercises and training opportunities with partners should improve concerted action between the various players and create more professional units accustomed to Arctic conditions.
The ministry’s strategy paper did not go unheard in Moscow and Beijing and a reaction followed the very next day. The Kremlin said that it was interested in an atmosphere of stability and predictability and that the cooperation was only aimed at promoting its own interests. The report had a “confrontational aftertaste”, which could also be interpreted as Moscow accusing the USA of “warmongering” in the region. Beijing also stated that the US was distorting China’s Arctic policy and had made ill-considered comments.
However, despite these words, other announcements and actions appear to be further fueling the situation rather than calming it down. Last Wednesday, President Putin announced his call to accelerate the expansion of naval forces, particularly in the north. The following day, US fighter jets intercepted Russian and Chinese bombers near Alaska in the so-called Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone. Although this zone is not directly part of US airspace, it is part of the wider air surveillance zone in order to detect flying objects as early as possible and intercept them if necessary.
This shows that the tug-of-war over the Arctic and the strategically important Bering Strait, which once connected Eurasia and North America like a bridge, continues unabated. At the moment, it remains uncertain whether it could serve as a bridge again in the future. Perhaps there will be opportunities for dialog and bridge-building on other levels and places.
Dr. Michael Wenger, Polar Journal AG
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