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Arctic Report Card 2024: Not much good news from the Arctic

Julia Hager 18. December 2024 | Arctic, Science
The populations of migratory Arctic tundra caribou in Canada, Alaska, Greenland and Russia continue to decline. Photo: Kyle Joly, National Park Service

NOAA’s annual assessment of the Arctic’s environmental state – the “Arctic Report Card” – once again paints a grim picture this year, highlighting the severe impacts of climate change. One of the alarming developments: The Arctic tundra has shifted from being a carbon dioxide sink to a carbon dioxide source.

Since 2006, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published “The Arctic Report Card”, or ARC, every December. This report provides reliable and up-to-date information on how the various components of the Arctic system, such as temperature, precipitation, sea ice extent and wildlife populations, are changing in comparison to historical records due to the rapid warming of the Arctic.

An overview of some of the most dramatic changes in the Arctic:

  • Forest fires and warming have turned the Arctic tundra from a carbon sink into a carbon source. (Read more in the text)
  • The Arctic remains a consistent source of methane.
  • The large migratory caribou herds have declined by 65 percent in the last 20 to 30 years.
  • Precipitation has increased, especially rain-on-snow events. (Read more in the text)
  • Surface air temperatures in the Arctic in 2024 were the second highest on record (Read more in the text)
  • The amount of snow in the winter of 2023-2024 was above average in both the Eurasian and North American Arctic.
  • Despite above-average snowfall, the snow season in parts of the central and eastern Arctic of Canada was the shortest in 26 years. The snowmelt in the Arctic starts 1-2 weeks earlier in May and June than in the past.
  • The greenness of the tundra, a measure of expanding shrub cover due to warming, reached the second highest value in the 25-year satellite record.
  • All 18 of the lowest sea ice minima in September occurred in the last 18 years.

The tundra region – from carbon storage to carbon source

One of the most dramatic developments comes from the Arctic tundra: Thawing permafrost and emissions from increasingly frequent wildfires have turned the region from a carbon sink into a source of carbon dioxide and methane. These greenhouse gases trap more heat in the atmosphere, further accelerating global warming.

The authors of ARC2024 attribute global significance to this transition of the tundra to a source of these two climate-relevant gases.

“Our observations now show that the Arctic tundra, which is experiencing warming and increased wildfire, is now emitting more carbon than it stores, which will worsen climate change impacts,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., said in a NOAA news release “This is yet one more sign, predicted by scientists, of the consequences of inadequately reducing fossil fuel pollution.”

The average carbon balance of the Arctic in the period 2002 – 2020. The areas colored purple were a source of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Fires occurred in the dark purple regions, causing high emissions. The green areas absorbed and stored carbon dioxide. Map: NOAA Climate.gov

In 2024, the highest permafrost temperatures ever were measured at almost half of the long-term monitoring stations in Alaska, while at the same time the second-highest emissions from fires north of the Arctic Circle were observed, which are becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate change.

Since 2003, an average of 207 million tons of carbon have been released into the atmosphere each year from wildfires in the Arctic. That is roughly as much carbon as 165 million cars emit in a year.

Temperatures, sea ice, precipitation

Records were also broken in other areas. For example, temperatures in northern Alaska and Canada reached record levels of more than 30°C during a heatwave in August this year. The annual average air temperatures were still “only” the second highest since 1900, with a deviation from the long-term average of little more than +1°C. However, the last nine years have been the warmest since records began in the Arctic.

The sea ice did not set any new negative records in September, when its extent is at its lowest. However, all of the 18 lowest minimum sea ice extents in September have occurred in the last 18 years.

Top left: Difference from the mean air temperature in the Arctic for October 2023 – September 2024 compared to the long-term average 1991-2020. Areas with warmer-than-average temperatures are orange and red, and areas with colder-than-average temperatures are blue. Bottom left: Annual temperatures in the Arctic (red line) and globally (gray line) compared to the long-term average (1991-2020) from 1900-2024. Top right: The mean sea ice concentration in September 2024 compared to the mean extent in the periods 1981-2010 and 1991-2020. Bottom right: The observed sea ice extent in the month of September 1979-2024 (solid line) and the trend (dashed line). Graphics: NOAA Climate.gov

In addition, the summer of 2024 saw the highest precipitation for the season since records began. However, precipitation increased the most in the winter months of January to March, including rain-on-snow events, which are particularly problematic for wildlife foraging. But a landscape covered in ice is also a challenge for people.

Not much good news

As in previous years, ARC2024 has little good news to report. But at least there is some. One is the good health of the ice seals in the Pacific Arctic, which is determined by the blubber layer thickness. After the body condition of ringed, bearded, spotted and ribbon seals declined in the 2010s, they have now recovered, according to the report.

However, the seals’ preferred prey, the Arctic cod, is retreating northwards with the warming seawater and the marine mammals have shifted their diet to saffron cod.

The populations of migratory caribou have declined by 65 percent in the last 20-30 years. Only the coastal caribou have been able to recover somewhat. Graphic: NOAA Climate.gov

The other positive news comes from the coastal caribou in the western Arctic. In contrast to the migratory populations, the populations of these rather smaller herds have recovered somewhat in the last ten years.

“This year’s report demonstrates the urgent need for adaptation as climate conditions quickly change,” said Twila Moon, lead editor of the Arctic Report Card and deputy lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. “Indigenous Knowledge and community-led research programs can inform successful responses to rapid Arctic changes.”

Summary NOAA Arctic Report Card 2024

The original researchers

ARC2024 also includes a feature on the role of traditional Inuit hunters as “Original Researchers” highlighted by Shari Fox and Mike Jaypoody, both from the Ittaq Heritage & Research Centre in Kangiqtugaapik (Clyde River), Nunavut, Canada.

Successful hunting has always required the Inuit to possess essential scientific skills such as observation, monitoring, and research. However, for a long time, Western scientific research largely overlooked or undervalued this traditional knowledge. Today, it is increasingly being recognized and integrated into modern scientific studies.

An outstanding example of the promotion of this knowledge is the Ittaq Heritage and Research Centre’s Angunasuktiit program. This program teaches the next generation comprehensive knowledge and hunting and harvesting skills, combining traditional techniques with modern scientific methods.

The authors emphasizes that the support and involvement of indigenous communities in Arctic research is crucial. This requires the sustainable promotion of indigenous ways of life and the recognition of their contribution to the generation of knowledge.

Julia Hager, Polar Journal AG

Link to the Arctic Report Card 2024: https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/report-card-2024/

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