The Polar Retrospective – ACA 2024 between business as usual and new tone
The Polar Retrospective looks back at events from the past week that are related to the Arctic and Antarctic and focuses on one or more aspects. And of course, this year’s Arctic Circle Assembly, the largest gathering of Arctic stakeholders, takes center stage as it was a mix between business as usual and new tone underscoring new (political) realities.
The Arctic Circle Assembly, held annually in Reykjavik, Iceland, has become a pivotal forum for dialogue and cooperation on Arctic affairs. While previous Assemblies focused on sustainable development and scientific collaboration, the 2024 edition saw a distinct shift towards security concerns. This change in emphasis reflects the growing geopolitical tensions in the High North, fueled by the war in Ukraine and increased great power competition, particularly between Russia and China on one side, and the US and its NATO allies on the other.
This shift was evident throughout the Assembly, from the keynote addresses to the numerous breakout sessions. Discussions and presentations highlighted the growing anxieties surrounding militarization, resource competition, and the potential for conflict in the region. The situation was particularly interesting looking at China, represented by the Chinese Special Envoy for Climate Change Liu Zhenmin.
China’s Arctic Ambitions Fuel Anxiety
One of the most prominent themes at the Assembly was the growing concern over China’s expanding presence in the Arctic. Beijing’s interest in the region is multifaceted, encompassing scientific research, economic investments in infrastructure and resource extraction, and increasingly, military capabilities. This has led to apprehension among Arctic states and NATO allies, who worry about China’s long-term strategic objectives and its opaque intentions.
Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee, articulated these anxieties in his address, highlighting China’s burgeoning partnership with Russia. This partnership, which includes joint military exercises and potential infrastructure development, is perceived as a challenge to the existing security architecture in the Arctic. Bauer emphasized the need for increased vigilance and transparency regarding China’s activities in the region as it is not clear to the NATO, what Chinese intentions really are.
NATO Reinforces its Arctic Posture
In response to the changing security environment, NATO has reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding the Arctic. The alliance’s 2022 Strategic Concept identifies the region as an area of strategic importance, and this commitment was reiterated by various NATO officials at the Assembly. Admiral Bauer, in his address and subsequent interviews, emphasized the need for increased situational awareness and “enhanced forward presence” in the High North to address potential threats. This includes strengthening surveillance capabilities, conducting more frequent military exercises, and potentially increasing the deployment of troops and equipment to the region. On various occasions during the Assembly, NATO partner representatives also stressed the importance of enhanced intelligence sharing and cooperation with non-Arctic states, including China, to address shared challenges like climate change and search and rescue, as reflected in NATO’s official Arctic policy documents.
US Unveils Robust Arctic Strategy
The United States also signaled a more assertive approach to Arctic security at the Assembly, launching its updated National Strategy for the Arctic Region. This strategy, as detailed in the official document released by the White House, prioritizes strengthening US military capabilities in the Arctic, enhancing domain awareness, and countering Russian and Chinese influence. It also emphasizes the importance of protecting critical infrastructure, promoting responsible resource development, and upholding freedom of navigation. This updated strategy underscores the US commitment to maintaining a leadership role in the Arctic and safeguarding its national interests.
As the US are aware of the fact that (yet) lack the resources to do so, they are strengthening the partnerships and alliances with their NATO partners as well as keeping communication channels open to avoid difficult situations with Russia and China, as US Coast Guard Rear admiral Andrew Sugimoto pointed out.
European Energy Security and Arctic Resources
The war in Ukraine has exposed Europe’s vulnerability to energy disruptions and highlighted the need for diversified energy sources. The Arctic’s vast oil and gas reserves are seen as a potential solution to reduce dependence on Russian energy. This topic was prominently featured in discussions at the Assembly on different levels.
However, increasing resource extraction in the Arctic raises concerns about the environmental impact, reflected by many questions during the sessions. Balancing energy security with environmental protection remains a key challenge for European nations, apart from the question who would pay for it. Yet, the Assembly saw a push for responsible resource development, with a focus on minimizing the environmental footprint and ensuring that the benefits of resource extraction are shared equitably with Arctic communities.
Business as usual: Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples Remain Important Factors
While security issues dominated the agenda, climate change remained a central theme at the Assembly. The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, with profound consequences for the region’s environment, ecosystems, and inhabitants. The Assembly highlighted the urgent need for action to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts. Discussions focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, promoting renewable energy, and enhancing resilience in Arctic communities.
The Assembly also again emphasized the importance of including Indigenous peoples in Arctic decision-making processes. It remains important to underline that Indigenous communities have unique knowledge and perspectives that are essential for addressing the challenges facing the region. Several sessions focused on Indigenous rights, self-determination, and the impacts of climate change and development on their traditional way of life. This year saw a particular emphasis on giving the Arctic youth a louder voice as they are the future of the region.
International Cooperation and Diplomacy and two new Forums
Despite the heightened security concerns, the Assembly underscored the importance of international cooperation and diplomacy in the Arctic. While competition between major powers is increasing, there is also a recognition that cooperation is essential to address shared challenges like climate change, environmental protection, and search and rescue. As usual, the Assembly served as a platform for dialogue and collaboration, with participants emphasizing the need for a rules-based order and peaceful resolution of disputes in the Arctic. This was particularly highlighted by the introduction of two new forums.
The Arctic Circle Business Forum brought together business leaders, investors, and policymakers to discuss the economic opportunities and challenges in the Arctic. The forum focused on promoting sustainable economic development in the region, with an emphasis on renewable energy, responsible resource extraction, and infrastructure development. It provided a platform for businesses to showcase their innovative technologies and solutions for the Arctic, and to engage with policymakers and investors on how to create a sustainable and prosperous future for the region.
On a dialogue level, the Arctic Circle also saw the introduction of the Polar Dialogue Forum building on the momentum from the One Planet – Polar Summit in Paris. It brought together representatives from Arctic and non-Arctic states, international organizations, and research institutions to discuss the challenges facing the polar regions, including the Arctic, Antarctic, and Himalayas. The dialogue focused on promoting scientific cooperation, sharing best practices, and developing collaborative solutions to address climate change, environmental protection, and sustainable development in these critical regions. The Polar Dialogue aims to contribute to the preparation of the Fifth Polar Year (IPY 5) in 2032-33, fostering a more integrated and comprehensive approach to polar research and policy.
These new forums reflect the growing complexity of Arctic issues and the need for a multi-faceted approach to address them. They provide valuable platforms for stakeholders from various sectors to come together, share knowledge, and collaborate on solutions for a sustainable and secure future for the Arctic and the global cryosphere.
Dr. Michael Wenger, Polar Journal AG
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