Volcanic ash: a risk to flights over Antarctica

Volcanic eruptions are not among the hazards one typically associates with Antarctica. However, a new study shows that explosive eruptions in northern Victoria Land could disrupt research stations, flight connections and even international air routes.

The focus is on Mount Melbourne and Mount Rittmann, two dormant but potentially active volcanoes in northern Victoria Land. Italian volcanologists Federica Pardini, Paola Del Carlo and Alessio Di Roberto from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) investigated how volcanic ash would spread in the event of possible eruptions.

To this end, they combined 20 years of meteorological data with computer simulations of various eruption scenarios. The results show that major eruptions, in particular, could have far-reaching consequences. If ash reaches great heights, it could be carried over enormous distances and even reach international flight routes in the Southern Hemisphere.

However, even smaller eruptions could severely disrupt Antarctic logistics. Ash clouds could interrupt regional flight connections on which many research stations rely during the short Antarctic summer. Deposits on runways, technical installations or water reservoirs could also cause problems.

The researchers therefore recommend that volcanic risks be given greater consideration in the emergency and logistics planning for Antarctic programmes in future.

Pardini, Del Carlo and Di Roberto published the findings on 4 September 2026 in “Scientific Reports”. The study is a hazard modelling exercise – there are no indications of an imminent eruption.

Heiner Kubny, PolarJournal